Ukraine faces a decisive year in the war to defeat Russia’s invasion, according to Andriy Yermak, a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. It’s not only the war-battered nation’s destiny at stake.
Strains are increasing within the US-led coalition backing Kyiv, testing its credibility in demonstrating the long-term will and capacity to defend democratic values and sovereign allies.
That’s being watched in other flashpoint areas such as the Caucasus region, where the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict still simmers, and the South China Sea as tensions mount between Beijing and the Philippines, which has a US security guarantee.
Germany admits the European Union won’t reach a target of supplying Ukraine with 1 million artillery rounds by the end of March, while members Hungary and now Slovakia are vocal dissenters over continuing EU support for Kyiv.
Bitter domestic political divisions are calling the commitment of the US into question. The next tranche of support for Ukraine’s military is being held up as Republicans and Democrats wrangle over a funding bill to avert a federal government shutdown within days.
Republican contenders to challenge Joe Biden in next year’s US presidential elections are split over whether even to continue backing Ukraine against Russia. The Israel-Hamas war is drawing attention away from Ukraine, too.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army is digging in as the Kremlin adopts a strategy of waiting for war fatigue to magnify the divisions among Ukraine’s allies and increase pressure on Kyiv for territorial concessions.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive to oust Russian forces from occupied territory continues to make slow progress in what military Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi recently called a “stalemate.”
Yermak said the war is approaching a “turning point” as he sought to bolster US and allied support for victory against Russia.
Just how the war turns will have consequences far beyond Ukraine.